Inter-Quarter Update Letter - March 2008
March, 2008
After last week’s sell off, the U.S. stock market is down about 10% this year. The primary factor scaring investors is continuing uncertainty over the length and depth of what is commonly referred to as the credit crises. Last week, two new reports were released. One projected total worldwide losses of $400 billion and the other $600 billion, about half of which will be in U.S. financial institutions. So far U.S. firms have written off about $125 billion and raised $90 billion of new capital, primarily from foreign sovereign funds.
Investment Outlook - Fourth Quarter 2007
January, 2008
For the first time since 1999 the growth sector led the market. The disparity in growth rates between growth and value stocks became the catalyst to draw investors back to the growth sector. It can continue because the growth sector is still significantly under valued. Your stock portfolio actually is a better value today than it was a year ago. Why? Because the companies grew their earnings in 2007 at an average rate in excess of 20%, which is more than the stocks appreciated.
Investment Outlook - Third Quarter 2007
October, 2007
Over the past three months, the global financial markets dealt with the sub-prime mortgage melt down. The Federal Reserve responded appropriately by pumping money into the banking system and lowering the Fed Funds rate by one-half of one percent, from 5.25% to 4.75%. The cut marked a significant reversal in Federal Reserve policy and we expect additional cuts in the future.
Investment Outlook - First Quarter 2007
April, 2007
Equity markets started 2007 strongly as corporations reported 10% fourth quarter earnings growth. These results, while registering a slowdown, exceeded expectations and pushed stocks higher. February and early March brought a meaningful worldwide correction as the Chinese stock market declined, Alan Greenspan predicted the “possibility” of a U.S. recession and default rates and bankruptcies escalated in the sub-prime mortgage market.
Word on Wall Street: Optimistic 2007 Outlook
January, 2007
Stock markets here and abroad have been on a tear since early summer. Yet we found three local experts who remain bullish about 2007.
Democrats take control of House of Representatives- Client Letter
November, 2006
While control of the Senate, at this writing, is still in doubt, the democrats have taken control of the House of Representatives. That constitutes political gridlock. The question for investors is “How will that impact the economy and the stock market?”
Equity Markets- Client Letter
November, 2006
Client letter regarding equity markets
Savings vs. Reinvesting: Achieving a Balance
October, 2006
Saving and reinvesting. In today's culture of heavy debt loads and negative savings rates, these two words might reflect the stuff dreams are made of.
Investment Outlook- Third Quarter 2006
October, 2006
While this has been an unusually volatile year, your stock portfolio is close to unchanged over the first 9 months. For the first time since the current bull market began over 3 years ago, our stocks lagged behind our target index. The Russell 3000 Growth index is up 3.1% for the year versus our flat performance.
Investment Outlook- Client Letter
July, 2006
Since the end of the second quarter, the stock market has continued the decline that began in early May. Higher interest rates and energy costs and now escalating violence in the Middle East have combined to increase investor uncertainty. Stock market volatility has escalated and we are seeing exaggerated declines in many individual companies in addition to the broad decline in the overall market.
Investment Outlook- Second Quarter 2006
July, 2006
When the last bull market peaked six years ago, U.S. annual corporate profits were $550 billion. As of 3/31/06, corporate profits hit a record $1.2 trillion and a record 8% of gross domestic product (GDP). During that six year period there has been an enormous adjustment in how those profits are valued. The price earnings ratio for the S&P 500 then was 30 times, now it is 14 times this year?s expected earnings.
Investment Outlook- Stock Market Changes
May, 2006
Based on the reaction of the stock market over the past couple of weeks, one would think first quarter corporate earnings reports had a decidedly negative tone to them. The truth is actually quite the opposite.
Investment Outlook- First Quarter 2006
April, 2006
Equities generated a high single digit return during the first quarter, which significantly exceeded the market indices. The advance was fueled by strong fourth quarter coporate earnings, which once again exceeded expectations.
Investment Outlook- Fourth Quarter 2005
December, 2005
We enter 2006 with corporate profits at a record high 8% of Gross Domestic Product. Household net worth and U.S. employment are also at an all time high. A few weeks ago, Barron?s reported corporate America was sitting on $2 trillion (not a misprint ? that?s trillion, not billion) in cash. With all that cash, dividend increases, share buy backs and acquisitions are also setting records.
The re-emergence of growth investing
December, 2005
While growth and value investing have each outperformed at different times for a variety of reasons, long-term investors concentrating on growth companies have generally had superior returns.