The bulk of what passes for economic news pouring forth from the many cable news and financial programs is so short-term and sensationalistic as to be useless, but even if it were thoughtful and reliable information, most of it would be of little value. The impact of this housing number, or that GDP estimate, in the scope of a meaningful long-term economic perspective, is essentially irrelevant.

A little perspective is in order. Until this year, global markets had undergone an unpleasant, but not unprecedented, three-year slowdown. The tech bubble and market gyrations aside, the American economy continued to function quite well throughout that period. The political posturing about disastrous unemployment rates and jobs moving abroad has some basis in fact, but it must be recalled that twenty years ago, a 6% unemployment rate was considered full employment, and jobs have been moving offshore for decades, as new ones have taken their place here.

Today’s news always seems more dramatic than history. World war, cold war and Viet Nam have given way to terrorism. Not to diminish our current situation, but 20 million people died in World War II. The Great Depression lasted 10 years, with unemployment levels reaching 30% or more.

Meaningful long-term economic forecasting needs to consider the structural elements and trends of the global economy as they may impact our country, and, in the case of MCM, our clients. This is not nearly as pretentious as it sounds.

We believe there are several major themes driving global growth: world trade and cultural interconnection; technological expansion, particularly in the developing world; improving international monetary policy leading to more financial stability; increasing consumer demand.

Will these be straight-line trends into the indefinite future? Of course not. We have learned much about managing fiscal policy and the relationship between the public and private sectors. Consumerism is driving production and marketing efficiencies along with product demand. But people make mistakes.

Nonetheless, our view is that a successful investor must participate in this evolutionary process. That requires patience, discipline, and the ability to identify companies likely to benefit in large degree from it.

Our job is to find those companies, monitor them closely, be aware of the economic, social and political nuances that may influence them, and act accordingly. In that context, we are confident that in five, or ten, or twenty years, investors will be able to look back at an extended period of growth and good returns.

The recently announced third quarter GDP of 7.2% is excellent news, but it is not nearly as important as the forces which create it.