4th
Quarter 2003 Client Letter
December 31,
2003
Here
is your year-end investment report. The
investment results are located on page one.
The numbers reflect the reemergence of growth in the U.S. and global
economy.
It is
a broad based recovery supported by low interest rates and a strong liquid
international banking system. Corporate
profits are expected to increase 15% or more this year as the world’s economies
continue to expand.
It is
not problem free. Issues like Iraq, the
budget deficit, and a declining dollar in the international currency market are
ever present. After reviewing these
and other concerns the important conclusion we draw is that none of these items
either singularly or in combination should derail the global recovery that is
in place and gaining momentum. We will
continue to monitor these events and position your portfolio to take advantage
of investment opportunities.
We
expect the positive investment environment to continue into 2004 and beyond and
we have your portfolio fully invested.
Only one company was added in the fourth quarter, Hibbett Sporting Goods Inc. It is a specialty retailer with a small
store format designed for smaller communities.
It is a unique and successful concept with an excellent growth record
and prospects.
Interest
rates experienced a transition in 2003.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury Note, our proxy for the general direction of
interest rates, began the year at 3.81% and declined much of the first half of
the year, hitting a low point of 3.07% on June 13th 2003. This decline in rates spurred an already
robust housing sector. With the economy
and equity markets advancing sharply, interest rates reversed course at
midyear. The 10- year U.S. Treasury
Note finished 2003 at 4.25%.
In
2004 we will likely see a continuation of gradually rising interest rates.
Investors
are always confronted with conflicting opinions and positive and negative
observations to support each view. The
challenge is to maintain perspective and to identify and then stay focused on
the primary trends. Election year
rhetoric does not make the process any easier.
Our focus is on a growing international economy generating accelerating
corporate profits. That gives us
considerable confidence as we move forward into 2004.
As
always, we invite your questions and comments, and look forward to talking with
you.